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Methodology

Two code paths, one euro, four decimals.

Every formula pinned to a regulator citation. Reconciled against EMSA THETIS-MRV public 2023 dataset, two independent paths, zero delta.

Regulator-style formula sheet on a dark wooden desk under low-angle lamp light.
€535,884,359
Aggregate projected 2026 FuelEU penalty
Across EMSA THETIS-MRV public 2023 dataset.
12,637
Fuel-bearing vessels reconciled
Both code paths agree to four decimals.
±0.0000%
Delta between paths
Calculation-only vs full-stack.

The two code paths

The engine runs against EMSA THETIS-MRV two independent ways: a calculation-only path that reads the CSV directly into the calculators, and a full-stack path that persists and rehydrates every row through the production handlers a customer would hit. Both paths must produce the same fleet-aggregate penalty to ±0.0000% or the build fails.

Fixture pinning

Every regulatory constant lives in one of 9 JSON fixtures, each entry carrying the Official Journal article reference inline: Cf and LCV per fuel, the FuelEU target line (Reg. (EU) 2023/1805 Article 4(2)), the penalty rate (Annex IV: €2,400 per tonne VLSFO-equivalent), the EU ETS phase-in (Directive 2003/87/EC Article 3gb), and the IMO CII reference line (MEPC.354(78)). Constants embedded in a calculator class fail a static check.

EMSA reconciliation

EMSA publishes a yearly emission report for every vessel above 5,000 GT calling at an EU port (Reg. (EU) 2015/757 Article 21). The 2023 dataset contains 12,829 vessels. Of those, 12,637 carry the fuel and distance data needed to project a 2026 FuelEU penalty; 11,928 are in deficit at the 2026 target line. Rows without sufficient public detail are surfaced as a count, never as imputed numbers.

Audit trail

Every euro on the verifier-ready report traces back to the fuel record, the BDN, the Cf and LCV, the calculator class, and the engine version that produced it. Citation strings include the Official Journal reference and article number.

What this does not prove

Two-path reconciliation proves the engine produces consistent, citation-grounded numbers. It does not prove regulatory correctness — that judgement belongs to an accredited verifier under Reg. (EU) 2015/757 Article 11.

12,637
Vessels reconciled
Fuel-bearing entries in the EMSA 2023 public dataset
€535,884,359
Projected 2026 FuelEU penalty
Aggregate fleet liability, Reg. (EU) 2023/1805 Annex IV
0.0000%
Engine delta vs EMSA published
Calculation-only vs full-stack run, 2026-06-26 proof
9
Regulator fixtures
JSON fixtures pinning every formula to a citation

Methodology preview

Same euro figure, two independent code paths.

The engine was run two ways against the EMSA 2023 public dataset: a calculation-only path that operates directly on parsed CSV rows, and a full-stack path that persists every fuel and voyage row through TenantGuard transactions and reads back through the same handlers production uses. Both paths produced the same fleet-aggregate FuelEU penalty.

FuelEU Reg. (EU) 2023/1805MRV Reg. (EU) 2015/757ISO 14083 2023Reconciled ±0.0000% vs EMSA 2023

FuelEU compliance gauge — illustrative

Surplus vessel-5.14 gCO2eq/MJMarginal+1.66 gCO2eq/MJMaterial deficit+8.16 gCO2eq/MJ

Intensities in gCO2eq/MJ against the 2025 yearly limit (89.34 gCO2eq/MJ) from Reg. (EU) 2023/1805. Live gauge in the operator dashboard.

Read the full reconciliation report

Reconciliation run — 2026-06-26

sextant-calc/1.0.0-SNAPSHOT

Calculation-only path

calculation-only ProofCli

€535,884,359

Full-stack path

Dagger → handlers → DB (TenantGuard transactions)

€535,884,359

Engine delta

Identical fleet aggregate to four decimal places

0.0000%

Vessels parsed

12,637 carried fuel data; 11,928 in 2026 deficit

12,829

Total runtime

53s ingest + 116s projection

170 s

Automated test suite

9 regulator-derived JSON fixtures pinning each formula

67 / 67

Citation grounding

Every constant traces back to an article and a table.

Provenship does not invent emission factors, target lines, or penalty rates. Each numeric input is pinned to its Official Journal reference or IMO resolution number, and tested against a regulator-derived JSON fixture in the build.

How citation grounding works →

Sample formula provenance

  • HFO well-to-wake Cf

    3.114 gCO2eq/g

    Reg. (EU) 2023/1805 Annex II, Table 1Heavy fuel oil emission factor used in GHG intensity computation

  • FuelEU 2025-2029 target

    89.34 gCO2eq/MJ

    Reg. (EU) 2023/1805 Article 4(2)−2% from 91.16 baseline; applies to all reporting years 2025 through 2029

  • FuelEU penalty rate

    €2,400 / tVLSFOeq

    Reg. (EU) 2023/1805 Annex IVPer-tonne VLSFO-equivalent in compliance deficit, multiplied by deficit mass

  • EU ETS 2026 phase-in

    100%

    Directive 2003/87/EC Article 3gbFull scope of in-scope CO2 from 2026; 40% (2024) and 70% (2025) precede